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Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Read of the 2024-2025 Race

The Hollywood Reporter's executive editor (awards) shares his take on 11 key categories post-Telluride and pre-Toronto.

A note from Scott: As hard as it is to believe, another awards season is upon us! It unofficially launched, as always, with the Venice and Telluride film festivals over Labor Day weekend. I was on the ground at the latter, where I saw and analyzed a bunch of films; interviewed the folks behind three of the most widely-discussed, The Apprentice, Maria and Emilia Pérez; and dissected the meaning of it all with my colleague Rebecca Keegan. Now, the awards-industrial complex has fled sweltering L.A. and migrated north to Toronto. I will be here for the next week screening films; analyzing their prospects; and, on Sunday, moderating TIFF Visionaries chats with Alfonso Cuarón (whose new Apple TV+ limited series Disclaimer screened at Venice and Telluride and will be screening here) and Malala Yousafzai (an executive producer of the Apple TV+ documentary The Last of the Sea Women, which will be having its world premiere here) — I hope you will join us!

Please remember: You can bookmark this URL and return to it at any time to see my latest picks — I intend to update it once a week, usually on Mondays. Think of me like a meteorologist — my aim is to correctly predict what will happen, not to advocate for what I think should happen. My picks are arrived at by screening films, consulting with voters, analyzing campaigns and studying results of past seasons. I do not rank things that I have not seen, because doing so is just silly. And now for my current forecast…


Best Picture


Best Director


Best Actor


Best Actress


Best Supporting Actor


Best Supporting Actress


Best Original Screenplay


Best Adapted Screenplay


Best International Feature


Best Documentary Feature


Best Animated Feature