Studios to Avoid Releasing Movies Around Election Day: “It’s Going to Be a S***show”

Studios have voted — and the decision is unanimous. For the first time anyone can remember, the box office marquee notably will be devoid of new all-audience releases the weekend following the 2024 presidential election. The first and second weekends of November have become fertile ground in terms of launching a movie before the year-end holiday glut begins. But the noise from this year’s Kamala Harris- Donald Trump race is expected to be so loud that distributors are staying on the sidelines when it comes to tentpoles. 

That noise could make it tough to promote a film opening during the Nov. 8-10 weekend, since the airwaves will be flooded with political ads in the preceding weeks. Sources also tell The Hollywood Reporter that ad rates are expected to be inflated by 30 percent to 40 percent because of the presidential showdown. A studio prepared to shell out $20 million or $30 million on TV media would suddenly be looking at $28 million to $40 million, for example.

Another concern: civil unrest. No one in Hollywood has forgotten the images of the U.S. Capitol being ransacked and pillaged on Jan. 6, 2021, following Trump’s loss to Biden.

“Notably, 2024 seems different and given the incredibly high stakes and high-profile nature of this year’s presidential contest, it looks like the major studios are erring on the side of caution rather than risking the oxygen-sucking dominance of what is likely to be the most intense post-election weekend in modern history,” says Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergerabedian. “Waiting to see if politically distracted news cycle obsessed moviegoers will vote with their absence at the multiplex over this specific November weekend is a box office gamble most are not willing to take this year.”

In 2012, Daniel Craig’s Skyfall opened to a franchise-best $88.4 million domestically the weekend following Barak Obama’s election to a second term. Nor did the Donald Trump-Hilary Clinton contest four years make studios skittish; Arrival opened to a solid $24 million over the weekend following Trump’s win, while Marvel’s Doctor Strange and DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls grossed $43 million and $35 million in their sophomore outings, respectively, after opening a weekend before the election. Other movies that have opened on post-election weekend include Pixar’s The Incredibles in 2004, followed by a double-header in 2008, Madagascar Escape 2 Africa and Role Models.

As of now, the movies set to open nationwide Nov. 8 include the Lionsgate family film The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, based on the book, and Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom, the latest anime offering from Crunchyroll/Sony. At the specialty awards box office, Focus Features will expand Conclave nationwide after opening the fall festival entry in limited theaters the weekend preceding the election. In terms of wide holdovers, Robert Zemeckis’ Here, reuniting Forrest Gump stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, will be in its second weekend. “The box office has never been impacted by the election, but this is a whole new level. It’s going to be such a shitshow,” says one major studio distributor. 

This story appeared in the Sept. 4 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.